Manila: The probability of a moderate to strong El Ni±o occurring in the last quarter of this year until early 2027 has risen to 92 percent, the chief of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) announced on Wednesday.

According to Philippines News Agency, PAGASA initially issued an El Ni±o Watch advisory in March, indicating a 55 percent likelihood of an El Ni±o developing within six months due to below-normal rainfall. "This will be upgraded into an El Ni±o Alert this month, projecting the phenomenon to emerge from July to September," PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel Servando stated in an interview.

El Ni±o is defined by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific. "During El Ni±o, rainfall conditions are expected to be below normal," Servando elaborated.

Meanwhile, reports suggest that Indonesia, currently experiencing weak El Ni±o conditions, anticipates the phenomenon to intensify to a moderate level by the third quarter of 2026. "Indonesia's climate is similar to the Philippines, and the local climate is influenced by climate variability such as El Ni±o," Servando noted. "Their projections of El Ni±o are consistent with ours."