Manila: Most parts of the country will likely experience way below normal rainfall due to a very strong El Ni±o expected towards yearend, the head of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Monday. "This means 60 percent or more reduction of average rainfall in a month," PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel Servando told the Philippine News Agency in an interview.

According to Philippines News Agency, a moderate to strong El Ni±o is currently present in the Tropical Pacific, with the phenomenon forecasted to continue until the first half of 2027. It is expected to reach a very strong state before the end of 2026. For September, below normal rainfall is anticipated over most of Northern Luzon, while near normal rainfall is expected over the rest of the country.

By October, below normal rainfall conditions will be prevalent over Luzon, the Visayas, and Caraga, while near normal rainfall is likely over the rest of Mindanao. Come November, way below normal to below normal conditions are expected across the country, with only patches of near normal rainfall forecasted in some areas in Mindanao.

In December, PAGASA forecasts above normal rainfall over most of Luzon and Western Visayas, yet below normal rainfall will likely prevail over most of the Visayas and Mindanao. Servando explained that the "above normal rainfall" in Luzon during December may not be significant as it is typically a dry month in Western Luzon. "Normal rainfall in December is relatively low, and this might be due to the shearline or the northeast monsoon," he said.

The country is expected to experience way below normal to below normal rainfall in January 2027, except for near normal rainfall conditions in some parts of Mindanao. For February, the entire nation is anticipated to face way below normal to below normal rainfall. Servando noted that "the peak of El Ni±o will be from October to December, but impacts may vary depending on locations and the severity."