Global Markets Exhibit Caution Ahead of US Midterm Elections

Manila:Global markets started the week cautiously as the US midterm elections approached, affecting asset prices.

According to Philippines News Agency, analysts indicated that the election outcomes could influence the Trump administration's policy maneuverability, and there is a possibility of heightened military tensions with Iran. However, markets retained some optimism about a potential US-Iran deal to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, following recent statements from Tehran.

Brent crude oil prices for December delivery decreased by 3.2 percent to USD 109 per barrel, attributed to the prospects of a US-Iran agreement. Concurrently, data suggested persistent US inflation risks, with strong economic activity and rapid price increases prompting expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Money market estimates indicated over a 70 percent likelihood of another Fed rate hike before the year's end, influenced further by upcoming nonfarm payrolls data.

Investors also focused on corporate earnings, particularly Apple's, to assess the impact of AI and technology investments on profitability. The 10-year US Treasury note yield declined for a third consecutive week, remaining flat at 4.94 percent amid AI-related concerns, while the US dollar traded steadily at 101.9.

Gold experienced a 3.6 percent drop on October 30, reaching USD 3,870 per ounce, under pressure from global monetary policy tightening, but rebounded 0.6 percent to USD 3,899 per ounce on Monday. US stock indexes, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average, fell on October 30 but began the new week positively.

Civil unrest in France, driven by student unions' call for high school sit-ins, dominated the European agenda, while the European Central Bank signaled a potential rate increase next month due to high energy prices. European stock markets started Monday on a mixed note, with the European Commission and European Council discussing closer EU-Canada relations.

Asian equity markets traded positively, except in Japan, with regional Manufacturing PMI readings indicating an economic demand slowdown. Japan's Nikkei 225 slightly decreased, while South Korea's Kospi, China's Shanghai Composite, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng saw gains.