Inflation Expectations Remain Anchored as Year-to-Date Average Hits 1.7%

Manila: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Eli Remolona Jr. expressed optimism over the country's inflation outlook, noting that consumer price expectations remain 'more or less anchored' amid sustained low inflation this year. In a press conference on Monday, Remolona highlighted that inflation has averaged 1.7 percent from January to October, which is below the government's target range of 2 to 4 percent.

According to Philippines News Agency, Remolona stated, "Our inflation expectations are, I would say, more or less anchored. In fact, in our statements, we say well anchored." He further explained that expectations are not far from the target, especially when looking two years into the future. Remolona expressed satisfaction with the current inflation performance, emphasizing the BSP's goal to keep price increases low and manageable. He mentioned, "That gives us comfort, but at the same time we're still working to try to measure anchoring more precisely."

Despite the positive outlook, Remolona declined to comment on whether subdued inflation expectations could lead to another policy rate cut next month, stating that the Monetary Board will remain data-dependent. BSP Officer-in-Charge Dennis Lapid shared insights from recent surveys of professional economists, indicating that while inflation might be slightly below target this year, a gradual increase toward approximately 3 percent is expected next year.

Lapid elaborated on the approach to assessing expectations, referencing the distribution of responses in surveys like the consumer expectations survey. He noted that the responses, represented as a bell curve, are gradually shifting closer to 2 percent and moving away from 4 percent. The BSP's final policy meeting for the year is scheduled for December 11.

In October, the central bank indicated potential for further easing amid growing concerns over economic impacts from corruption issues involving major flood-control projects and infrastructure.