Manila: The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Monday warned that the short-lived La Ni±a now affecting the country will continue to bring above-normal rainfall in many regions until February, increasing the risk of flooding, landslides, and weather disruptions.
According to Philippines News Agency, PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS) chief Ana Liza Solis stated that the current La Ni±a episode is expected to last no more than six months, but will still have a strong influence on local weather conditions. Solis explained that La Ni±a develops when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific cool, strengthening weather systems that push more moisture toward the Philippines.
Solis highlighted the ongoing threat of high rainfall and the prevalence of rain-bearing weather systems, specifically mentioning the shear line's current activity. PAGASA had released a La Ni±a Watch in August and escalated it to a La Ni±a Alert in September. Since then, several tropical cyclones have affected the Philippine Area of Responsibility, causing heavy rains across Luzon, the Visayas, and parts of Mindanao.
Rainfall risks remain elevated in several regions, including Region II, the Cordillera Administrative Region, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, the Bicol Region, Western and Central Visayas, the Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, the Davao Region, Soccsksargen, Caraga, and the Bangsamoro region. The eastern sections of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao are expected to experience the heaviest rains until early February.
The agency also anticipates more tropical cyclones than usual during La Ni±a years. Solis noted that 23 tropical cyclones have already been recorded this year, surpassing the annual average of 19 to 20, with the possibility of one more forming before the year ends. Stronger easterlies are bringing warm, moisture-rich air toward the country, contributing to convective systems, low-pressure areas, and potential cyclones. Warmer waters near the Philippines further increase the likelihood of disturbances.
PAGASA urged local government units to maintain coordination with the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), the Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG), and emergency response agencies to ensure community preparedness. The agency emphasized the importance of early warning systems, localized evacuation plans, and close monitoring of high-risk areas.
Although La Ni±a is expected to weaken by February, Solis mentioned there is no indication of an imminent shift to El Ni±o. The agency is currently monitoring for an ENSO-neutral phase by early next year. Officials have urged the public to remain alert as persistent rains and frequent weather systems may continue to trigger hazards in already saturated communities nationwide.
