Manila: Philippine economic growth is projected to remain robust despite a global economic slowdown and the introduction of a 19 percent US reciprocal tariff, according to an economist from the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO). In a recent virtual briefing, AMRO Group Head and Principal Economist Allen Ng emphasized that the direct impact of the tariff on the Philippine economy would be limited.
According to Philippines News Agency, AMRO anticipates slower economic growth for the Philippines due to the expected deceleration of the global economy. The July ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) by AMRO forecasts Philippine economic growth of 5.6 percent for this year and 5.5 percent for 2026. These forecasts are lower than the previous projections of 6.3 percent for both 2025 and 2026.
Ng highlighted that the recent US tariff was not factored into the latest projections. "We have yet to incorporate this into our outlook today, and we will need to study the details as they come up eventually," he noted. Ng elaborated that the reduction from 20 percent to 19 percent in the tariff is unlikely to significantly alter the forecast, as the Philippine economy is predominantly domestic-centric.
The lower growth forecasts are mainly attributed to the anticipated global economic slowdown and slower-than-expected GDP expansion in the first quarter of the year. Ng explained that while the direct impact of the tariff on the Philippines might be minimal compared to other regions, there would be a broader impact due to the global slowdown.
Ng also pointed out that the reciprocal tariff could affect exports, business sentiments, and investment activities in the Philippines. Despite the downward revision, he emphasized that the growth in the Philippines remains robust, driven by strong private consumption, stable labor market conditions, slowing inflation, and expectations of robust remittances.
AMRO expects inflation to be 1.8 percent this year, down from the previous forecast of 3.3 percent. For 2026, inflation is predicted to settle at 3.2 percent.
