Manila: Fuel prices are expected to decline in the coming weeks due to expected oversupply amidst geopolitical risks, an official of the Department of Energy (DOE) said Tuesday.

According to Philippines News Agency, DOE Oil Industry Management Bureau Director Rino Abad, in a Bagong Pilipinas Ngayon interview, cited reports from the International Energy Agency (IEA) on its 2026 outlook released last November, as well as data from the US Energy Information Administration. Both agencies forecast an oversupply of oil by next year.

Abad noted that oil prices have been on a downtrend in the last two weeks, and there is a significant chance this will continue in line with the projection of oversupply in the first quarter of 2026.

He also mentioned two major risks affecting this forecast: geopolitical issues between Russia and Ukraine, and economic problems in Venezuela. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to sanctions by the US and Europe, with JPMorgan forecasting that around 1.4 million barrels of oil per day are not being released from Russia.

The IEA has previously forecasted that around three to four million barrels of oil supply in the first quarter next year could be at risk due to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Despite this, Abad emphasized a general forecast of higher oil supply in the first three months of the upcoming year.

Abad explained that speculations regarding the sanctions against Russia could cause temporary price increases, even if the supply remains high, but these increases are not sustained since the fundamentals remain unaffected.

This week, gasoline prices saw an adjustment, rising by PHP1.20 per liter. Abad mentioned that they are still determining the cause of this increase. He stated that the real changes depend on the movement of crude oil prices, which eventually affects the finished products.