Manila: Inflation likely continued to settle below 2 percent in April due to lower food prices, an economist has said.

According to Philippines News Agency, Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation chief economist Michael Ricafort stated in a Viber message Thursday that inflation is projected to further decelerate to 1.6 percent in April from 1.8 percent last March. "The initial implementation of the maximum suggested retail price of imported rice on January 20, 2025, the declaration of a food security emergency on February 3, 2025, as well as world rough rice prices at the lowest in more than three years, could all help further reduce local rice prices, which account for about 9 percent of the inflation, and also support benign inflation," Ricafort mentioned.

Ricafort highlighted the role of improved weather conditions, particularly in Northern Luzon, which have contributed to increased agricultural production and local supply. "For instance, the price of local tomatoes declined dramatically since February 2025 amid supply glut in some areas in Northern Philippines, thereby could have helped ease inflationary pressures on some vegetables," he said.

He also noted that the Department of Agriculture's imposition of a maximum suggested retail price (MSRP) on pork has been instrumental in controlling pork prices. Additionally, Ricafort explained that the lower US dollar/peso exchange rate in April 2025, at 56 levels, may have led to reduced importation costs, contributing to some easing in overall inflation.

The Philippine Statistics Authority is scheduled to release the April 2025 inflation data on May 6. Ricafort expressed optimism for the coming months, suggesting that it is possible for inflation to sustain at 2 percent levels up to early 2025. This outlook aligns with or even falls below the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' inflation target range of 2-4 percent, which could justify further BSP rate cuts.