Manila: House Assistant Majority Leader Zia Alonto Adiong of Lanao del Sur highlighted emerging challenges to Vice President Sara Duterte's national standing following the latest OCTA Research survey. The survey, which reflects growing public scrutiny over unresolved accountability issues, suggests a shift in public sentiment.
According to Philippines News Agency, the Q1 2026 Tugon ng Masa (TNM) survey revealed a hypothetical Robredo-Tulfo tandem leading with 44 percent support nationwide, compared to the Duterte-Marcos pairing at 40 percent, while 16 percent of respondents remained undecided. The survey described this as a 'narrow national lead' and indicated a more competitive political landscape approaching 2026.
The survey, conducted nationwide from March 19 to 25, involved face-to-face interviews with 1,200 respondents aged 18 and above, using probability sampling. The findings carried a ±3 percent national margin of error at a 95 percent confidence level. Notably, this is the first recorded instance in OCTA's TNM tandem match-up surveys where a Robredo-led tandem surpassed a Duterte-Marcos alignment in a direct preference test.
OCTA stressed that the results are an 'early-stage hypothetical vote-intention measure' and should be seen as a snapshot of current public sentiment, not a prediction of electoral outcomes. Despite OCTA's cautionary note, Adiong emphasized the political significance of the results, noting a shift from the previously commanding lead of the Duterte-Marcos tandem.
The shift is linked to impeachment allegations faced by Duterte, involving alleged misuse of public funds, unexplained wealth, bribery, and threats against President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr., First Lady Liza Araneta-Marcos, and former Speaker Ferdinand Martin Romualdez. The regional breakdown of the survey results indicates a polarized but increasingly competitive political landscape.
OCTA reported that Robredo-Tulfo led in the National Capital Region with 61 percent, Balance Luzon with 57 percent, and the Visayas with 48 percent. Conversely, Duterte-Marcos posted dominant support in Mindanao with 86 percent, while obtaining 23 percent each in NCR and Balance Luzon, and 40 percent in the Visayas.
Adiong pointed out that the Visayas numbers were particularly notable, with OCTA identifying the region as strategically contested. The survey also described Balance Luzon as critical due to its electoral weight. This geographic spread mirrors the support during the impeachment vote, with support extending beyond Luzon.
OCTA's survey showed Robredo-Tulfo strongest among Class D respondents at 47 percent, followed by Class E at 36 percent and Class ABC at 35 percent. Duterte-Marcos posted their highest support among Class E respondents at 51 percent, followed by Class D at 39 percent and Class ABC at 37 percent. Among Class ABC respondents, 25 percent remained undecided. Nationwide, undecided respondents accounted for 16 percent, indicating that many voters are still waiting for direct answers rather than attacks on the process.
Adiong stated that the undecided segment could become crucial and emphasized that Duterte still has the opportunity to respond through a Senate impeachment trial.
